Thai broiler exports up 18.83% in 10M08
- Thai broiler exports rose 18.83% YoY in the first 10 months of 2008.
- Exports to key market Japan leapt 25.5% YoY in terms of volume.
- The worldwide economic slowdown seems to take a smaller hit on purchasing power in the agro and food industry than any other sector. The industry also stands to reap the windfall from China’s tainted food crisis.
- We maintain a ‘NEUTRAL’ position in the agribusiness space. We continue to rate GFPT and CPF shares as a ‘BUY’ with 2009 price targets of Bt25/share and Bt3.90/share respectively.
Thai broiler exports up 18.83% in 10M08
Thai broiler exports grew 18.83% to 319,911 million tons in the first 10 months of 2008 from 269,215 million tons in the same period in 2007, according to the Thai Broiler Processing Exporters Association. The data also showed that export volume rose in all markets. Exports to Japan, EU and other markets leapt 25.5%, 12.56% and 20.68% YoY respectively
In our opinion, global economic misery is likely to take a smaller hit on the food-related sector than any other industry on the grounds that food is a basic necessity of life. China’s tainted food crisis would open up opportunity for Thai exporters to expand their market reach amid growing concerns over the safety of food imports from China. The recently signed Japan-Thailand free trade pact would also be a boon to Thai chicken exports. Under the pact, Japan would cut its import duty on Thai cooked chicken over time from 6% to 3% within five years. The import tariff cut would enable Thai exporters to gain more market share in Japan.
Because of the cost-plus pricing structure, the falls in raw materials prices are poised to drag earnings down next year, but we remain positive on food-related shares, as the impact of the worldwide economic slump on the agribusiness sector looks much milder than its toll on any other industry. On a fundamentals basis, Thai chicken exporters are also trading at a cheap valuation in both P/E and P/BV terms. We maintain a ‘NEUTRAL’ position in the agribusiness space. We continue to rate GFPT and CPF shares as a ‘BUY’ with 2009 price targets of Bt25/share and Bt3.90/share respectively.
By Phillip Securities (Thailand) Plc. on Dec 8, 2008
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